GOP Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement has opened up a U.S. Senate race in Iowa, a race Democrats see as a long-shot pickup opportunity in 2026.

Ernst, first elected in 2014, announced on September 2 that she would not seek a third term in 2026, citing wanting to spend more time with family. Ernst, who joins a growing number of U.S. senators heading for the exits, has faced criticism from both sides of the political spectrum this year. She received immense pressure from the right to vote to confirm Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which she ultimately did despite early reservations. She was also slammed by Democrats for saying that “we are all going to die” in defending cuts to Medicaid in Republicans’ domestic policy megabill.  

GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, widely seen as a rising star in Republican politics, launched her campaign for Senate on the day of Ernst’s retirement announcement. She’s earned endorsements from top congressional leaders, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm. Former state Sen. Jim Carlin had announced in April that he would run against Ernst in the Republican primary, challenging her from the right.

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird and U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker, who served as acting attorney general in President Donald Trump’s first term, have also been floated as potential Republican candidates. 

The main Democratic candidates running in the race are state Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek; Nathan Sage, a U.S. military veteran and executive director of the Knoxville, Iowa, Chamber of Commerce; and Jackie Norris, the chair of the Des Moines School Board, who previously served as chief of staff to former First Lady Michelle Obama. 

Iowa, a onetime presidential battleground state, has trended increasingly Republican in recent years — Trump won the state in the past three presidential elections, carrying it by 13 points in 2024. The state’s only statewide Democratic elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand, is running in the open race for governor to succeed Gov. Kim Reynolds, who announced in April that she was retiring after serving out her second term.  

But Democrats are hoping Ernst’s retirement will give them a better chance of capturing the seat.  

Republicans currently control the Senate by a three-seat majority, 53 to 47, and senators serve six-year terms, meaning a third of the Senate is up every election cycle. For Democrats to win back the chamber in 2026, they’d need to hold on to every seat they have, including competitive ones in Georgia and Michigan. They also would have to flip four GOP-held seats — targets include Maine, North Carolina and even more Republican-leaning states such as Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska and Texas.