Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are facing off for an open Senate seat that Democrats are targeting as a long-shot pickup opportunity.
Hinson, widely seen as a rising star in Republican politics, launched her campaign for Senate on the day GOP Sen. Joni Ernst announced her retirement. She’s earned endorsements from top congressional leaders, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.
Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs, defeated state Sen. Zach Wahls. He was born with spina bifida after his father was exposed to Agent Orange while serving in Vietnam and is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball.
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Iowa, a onetime presidential battleground state, has trended increasingly Republican in recent years — Trump won the state in the past three presidential elections, carrying it by 13 points in 2024. The state’s only statewide Democratic elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand, is running against businessman Zach Lahn in the open race for governor to succeed Gov. Kim Reynolds, who announced in April that she was retiring after serving out her second term.
But Democrats are hoping Ernst’s retirement and the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on farmers in the state will give them a better chance of capturing the seat.
Ernst, first elected in 2014, announced September 2 that she would not seek a third term in 2026, citing wanting to spend more time with family. Ernst, who joins a growing number of U.S. senators heading for the exits, has faced criticism from both sides of the political spectrum this year. She received immense pressure from the right to vote to confirm Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which she ultimately did despite early reservations. She was also slammed by Democrats for saying that “we are all going to die” in defending cuts to Medicaid in Republicans’ domestic policy megabill.
Republicans currently control the Senate by a three-seat majority, 53 to 47, and senators serve six-year terms, meaning a third of the Senate is up every election cycle. For Democrats to win back the chamber in 2026, they’d need to hold on to every seat they have, including competitive ones in Georgia and Michigan. They also would have to flip four GOP-held seats — targets include Maine, North Carolina and even more Republican-leaning states such as Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska and Texas.
