UPDATE: Abigail Spanberger won the governor’s race in Virginia. Read more here.

Virginia will elect its first woman governor Tuesday, picking a winner in a rare two-woman contest between former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Even rarer is Earle-Sears’ ascent to the nomination: Nationwide, only six Black Republican women have run for governor since 2000, and Earle-Sears is the first one to win the party’s nomination.

That’s according to an analysis by the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. The milestone comes seven years after Stacey Abrams became the first Black woman gubernatorial nominee for a major party in U.S. history. 

Earle-Sears, who is also an immigrant, has marked the historic nature of her campaign by attacking Democrats over their outreach to Black voters, women voters and immigrants — all groups that tend to favor Democrats. As the Trump administration rolls out policies that are hostile to immigrants and attacks policies designed to promote diversity, equity and inclusion, Earle-Sears has defended the administration’s actions and criticized Democrats.

“Here comes the Democrats — always the race card. Always the race card. Why?” Earle-Sears said in a Fox News interview this month. “You said you care about Black people, well, here I am. You said you care about women, well, here I am. You said you care about immigrants, here I am. …These people never let the wound heal, and they’re the ones who are causing it.”   

Earle-Sears arrived in the United States at the age of 6 from Kingston, Jamaica, to join her father in New York City. In an interview with local news outlet WVTF, Sears said that while she was a child and not very familiar with her father’s immigration process, her family came to the country “the right way,” and proved that his daughter “wouldn’t be a detriment to taxpayers.”

Only three women born outside of the United States have ever served as governors, with the first, Madeleine Kunin of Vermont, taking office in 1985. All were Democrats.

Earle-Sears has highlighted her immigrant background, connecting it to the Civil Rights Movement and the notion of the American Dream. 

“My dad came to America with only $1.75 at the height of the Civil Rights Movement — 17 days before Dr. King gave his ‘I Have a Dream’ speech, and here I am, now second in command in the former capitol of the Confederate states,” Earle-Sears told Fox News. 

The possibility of Earle-Sears becoming governor as a naturalized immigrant comes as anti-immigrant sentiments play a strong role in Republicans’ appeal to voters. Earle-Sears has stood firmly behind the administration’s immigration agenda, particularly its cooperation with local law enforcement, which has helped make Virginia a top state for immigration enforcement under Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

“I am a legal immigrant and now a naturalized citizen. Working together, the governor, attorney general, and I have made Virginia safer,” she said in a statement supporting a Youngkin executive order directing state law enforcement and corrections officers to aid with federal immigration enforcement. 

“In part, when she’s talking about being a Black person, a Black woman, a Black immigrant, an immigrant — however you want to look at the intersections of these identities — she leverages them, at least in part, to say, I have more credibility on these issues than somebody else who doesn’t share those identities. And so when I take a position on those it is harder for my opponent to try to discredit that position,” said Kelly Dittmar, director of research at CAWP. 

Dittmar added that Earle-Sears’ narrative around “good immigrants versus bad immigrants” is a common one for Republicans with immigrant backgrounds, like former GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley.

A spokesperson for the campaign did not respond to several requests for comment.

Earle-Sears stepped up to lead the state’s Republican ticket after becoming the first Black woman to win statewide in Virginia in 2021, when she was elected lieutenant governor. Earle-Sears is one of only five Black Republican women nationwide to have won statewide elected office. 

If she wins the general election, she would become the first Black woman governor in the country’s history, though polling in the race has consistently shown her trailing Spanberger. The latest survey published Monday by the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University found Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. 

Black women are among the Democratic Party’s strongest backers, but, Dittmar said, Earle-Sears’ candidacy paints a fuller picture of Black women’s politics. 

“She’s also pushing people to think more critically about the diversity among Black women, which isn’t huge. A large majority of Black women do identify as Democrats,” Dittmar said. The most recent presidential election showed that support for Democrats is higher among Black women than virtually any other demographic group of voters. “That said, when we ignore even a small minority of that group, that’s a problem.” 

Whether she wins or loses, Dittmar said, Earle-Sears’ trajectory will shape how voters think about who can succeed in politics. 

“Simply breaking this milestone — and in her case, it’s multiple — challenges the notion that it’s impossible —  that a Black woman or a Black Republican woman or an immigrant or any of these intersections excludes you from success at these levels,” Dittmar said.