Nearly half of U.S. adults say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who supports banning transgender athletes from girls’ and women’s sports teams, according to a new The 19th/YouGov poll — a position embraced by most Republican candidates and an increasing share of Democrats as November’s midterms draw closer.
The results come as candidates in midterm races nationwide spar over trans student-athletes, including in states where laws that ban them from teams matching their gender identity have been in place for several years. Republicans have largely led that charge, but some Democrats have recently voiced support for restrictions on trans athletes, in some cases adopting language that purposefully misgenders trans youth.
Forty-five percent of adults said they were more likely to back a candidate supportive of trans athlete bans, compared with 20 percent who said they are more likely to vote for someone who opposes them. An additional 16 percent said politicians’ views on trans athletes are unlikely to affect how they vote, and 18 percent were unsure which candidate they would support.
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Democrats and Republicans were deeply divided in their support for candidates favoring or objecting to bans on trans athletes. A majority of Republicans — 78 percent — said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who supports banning trans athletes from girls’ and women’s sports, compared with 46 percent of independents and just 19 percent of Democrats. Thirty-seven percent of Democrats said they would be more likely to support a candidate who opposes banning trans athletes from female sports teams, compared with 18 percent of independents and only 7 percent of Republicans.
For years, Republican lawmakers across the country have sought to bar trans athletes from teams matching their gender identity, repeating during legislative hearings and in public comments that trans students’ participation is unfair and puts cisgender athletes at risk. They frequently refer to trans girls as “men” or “boys.”
Republican Party surrogates like Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, have said they plan to invest heavily in efforts to elect GOP candidates this fall. America PAC, the super PAC created and funded by Musk, has released dozens of digital ads specifically targeting trans people since the beginning of September.
“These attacks are expensive, and they aren’t really working,” said Ramiro Sarmiento, national press secretary for the Human Rights Campaign. “Republicans and their allies have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on ads attacking trans kids, and even after that barrage, 55 percent of voters either would back a candidate who opposes sports bans or don’t have a strong opinion. After all that money, that’s a failure to persuade — candidates shouldn’t treat MAGA’s most expensive talking point as if it’s working or as if it’s organic.”
Just 16 percent of adults in the 19th/YouGov poll said state or local governments should have a say in whether to restrict trans athletes, despite state lawmakers having adopted the vast majority of such policies.
Americans were mixed on who should regulate trans athletes’ participation. The largest share — 33 percent — said the federal government should decide whether trans student-athletes are allowed to play on sports teams consistent with their gender identity, a central focus of President Donald Trump’s second administration. Twenty-three percent of adults said schools or school districts should decide, and 28 percent said they are unsure who should make that determination.
Data on trans student-athletes is limited. In 2024, NCAA president Charlie Baker said trans athletes accounted for fewer than 10 of half a million college athletes nationwide, though the organization has since banned trans women from women’s competitions. In a 2022 Human Rights Campaign survey, 19 percent of trans or gender-nonconforming 13- to 17-year-olds said they played school or recreation league sports, a much lower percentage than young people overall.
Since 2021, 27 states have adopted laws barring transgender student-athletes from playing sports in line with their gender identity. The Supreme Court upheld West Virginia’s and Idaho’s bans in June.
Overall, roughly 42 percent of adults in the poll released on Wednesday said politicians should not focus on trans issues at all, and 37 percent said both Democrats and Republicans talk “too much” about trans people. More than half of Democrats, however, said politicians should focus more of their energy toward protecting trans people, and 54 percent of Republicans said politicians should prioritize restricting access to gender-affirming healthcare.
More than half of adults said trans people face “a lot” of discrimination in the United States, although that number was substantially higher among respondents with a personal connection to the community.
Eighty-three percent of trans adults said trans people experience “a lot” of discrimination in the United States, as did those with a family member (60 percent), close friend (86 percent) or an acquaintance (65 percent) who is trans. Nearly 70 percent of adults said they did not know a trans person.
The 19th/YouGov poll was conducted online from September 18 to 24 among 2,357 adults, including an oversampling of 18- to 29-year-olds. The margin of error for the overall sample is ± 2.5 points.
