The first phase of a barn-burner of a race for U.S. Senate is coming to a close in Texas on Tuesday. 

On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a firebrand progressive who represents a Dallas-area district, is facing state Rep. James Talarico. Polls have given wildly different pictures of the race, as Democrats hope the winner could end a decades-long drought of statewide wins.

Republicans have a contentious and bruising primary of their own. Republican John Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, is facing primary challenges from other prominent Republicans who accuse the incumbent of being too centrist and insufficiently aligned with President Donald Trump. Embattled Attorney General Ken Paxton, a close Trump ally, and Rep. Wesley Hunt, a second-term Republican who represents a Houston-area district, are running against Cornyn, creating a competitive and expensive three-way primary. Trump has declined to endorse in the race. 

If no candidates earn a majority of the vote in Tuesday’s primary, the top two finishers will advance to a May 26 runoff.  

Crockett was elected to the U.S. House in 2022 from a safe blue district. She’s gained a national profile and media visibility with her sharp criticisms of Republicans, including through her role on the House Oversight Committee. She sought an even more visible position as the top Democrat on the panel, but withdrew her candidacy. 

“There are a lot of people that said, ‘You got to stay in the House, we need your voice, we need you there’, and I understand, but what we need is for me to have a bigger voice,” Crockett said of her Senate bid. “What we need is not only a voice, but we need to make sure that we are going to stop all the hell that is raining down on all of our people.”

Talarico, in a statement after Crockett entered the race, pointed to his fundraising and volunteer numbers. “Our movement is rooted in unity over division — so we welcome Congresswoman Crockett into this race,” he said.

Polls show Democratic men heavily favoring Talarico, meaning the split among women voters could be decisive in the race.

But racial breakdowns in voting stand to tell the most interesting picture, according to Mark Jones, a Rice University professor and political scientist.

White women are the largest Democratic primary bloc and are so far more supportive of Talarico, Jones said, while Black women are overwhelmingly supporting Crockett, a Black woman, this year.

“The overall election will be decided by, to what extent can Crockett either win or come close to winning Latina women and White women’s vote,” he said.

The race is one of Texas’ most competitive Democratic primaries in recent history. Crockett filed paperwork to enter the race on the last day candidates could file to run for the seat. On the same day, former Rep. Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully challenged GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, said he was dropping out to run for a U.S. House seat. 

Both Crockett and Talarico have solidified their existing bases while ramping up outreach in the final weeks, with Crockett campaigning in more Latinx-heavy areas and releasing Spanish-language digital advertising.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, days before the primary, recorded a robocall backing Crockett, according to the Texas Tribune.

“Jasmine has the experience and record to hold Donald Trump and his billionaire cronies accountable,” Harris says on the call.

“I completely understand if I’m not Black Texans’ first choice in this race, but I would love to be their close second choice,” Talarico said in a recent Politico interview, adding that his approval rating among Black voters has continued to rise. “But if I don’t get it in this race, I’ll hope to have it in the general election.”

Crockett, for her part, is leaning into her persona as a fighter — Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has featured attacks on her in his ads.  

“No one really believes that I’m the type of person that takes punches lying down,” Crockett recently told The Washington Post. “And I’ve been getting punched pretty hard since before I even got into this race.”

No Democrat has been elected to a statewide office in Texas since 1994, but Trump’s unpopularity and Democrats’ big election wins in 2025 have energized the party to seriously compete for red-state Senate seats. Hunt or Crockett could also each be Texas’ first Black U.S. senator.

Republicans control the Senate by a three-seat majority, 53 to 47, and senators serve six-year terms, meaning a third of the Senate is up every election cycle. For Democrats to win back the chamber in 2026, they’d need to hold competitive seats in states like Georgia and Michigan while flipping four GOP-held seats in Maine, North Carolina and even more Republican-leaning states like Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska and Texas.