Right now, Republicans control not just the White House but both chambers of Congress.
At the beginning of the year, the House seemed within Democrats’ reach in the midterm elections, and the Senate seemed like a long shot. But the map has expanded, and many forecasters think Democrats could not just take the House but also net the four Senate seats they need to win control.
In addition to watching which party will control the legislative branch, The 19th is paying attention to the women who could make history this year. Here’s a quick rundown of some of the key races we’re watching.
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Who could make history?
A couple of women have a chance to make history in governor’s races.
Deb Haaland is the Democratic nominee for governor in New Mexico — she’s favored to win, and she would be the first Native woman to lead any state in the United States.
Two women are likely to win their contests and be the first women governors in their states: Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, a Democrat, and Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee, a Republican.
In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa is locked in a tight contest with incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott; if she wins, she would be the first Latina governor of the state.
And if Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms beats billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson in Georgia, she would be the first Black woman governor in the entire country.
In the Senate, control could rest on two races with Native women, both Democrats. Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing former sportscaster Michele Tafoya. In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Right now, in the Senate, two Black women are serving at the same time, for the first time ever. Juliana Stratton of Illinois is set to make it a third in the next Congress. If Angie Nixon can unseat Sen. Ashley Moody in Florida, she’d be a fourth; she’d also be the state’s first Black senator.
A couple of women who are heavily favored in their House races are set to be firsts — Melat Kiros would be the first Black woman elected to Congress from Colorado, and Jasmine Clark of Georgia would be the first Black woman Ph.D. scientist to serve in Congress.
The issues we’re watching
At The 19th, we’re watching how women and LGBTQ+ voters show up and what motivates them. We know that concerns about affordability are driving a lot of voters this year as the war in Iran drives up gas and fuel prices — as well as dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump. We’re also watching how anti-trans rhetoric has shaped this election and how voters react.
We’ll also be watching ballot measures. A few states have measures on abortion, as voters in Idaho decide whether to overturn a strict ban and voters in Missouri weigh whether to overturn a measure they passed in 2024 enshrining abortion rights. Virginia is set to strike a ban on same-sex marriage from its Constitution. And a number of states will vote on trans kids’ participation in school sports.
When will we know who won?
Our coverage Tuesday night will be focused on wins and losses and historic firsts. We use results from Decision Desk HQ, which collects data about vote counts — how much has been counted, where votes are coming from, what kind of votes they are — and assesses when they can project a winner.
Elections are run on a state and local basis, and rules for when ballots have to be in and how quickly they’re counted vary. Some states we can expect quick results from, while in others — particularly California and Alaska — it may take days or even weeks before projections can be made. In California, ballots postmarked by Election Day can be received for seven days after. In Alaska, ballots also must be sent by Election Day, but it can take a while for them to be received in the enormous rural state. Alaska also has ranked-choice voting, so if no candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote, more choices are tallied.
But many results come in earlier. A lot of observers will be watching the fast-counting Florida, where polls everywhere except the Panhandle will be closed by 7 p.m. EST, for signs of how each party is doing. Georgia’s polls also close at 7 p.m. EST — though the size of the Atlanta vote will impact how quickly a winner in the governor’s race can be projected. In Texas, all polls are closed by 9 p.m. EST, and early votes are likely to be reported quickly.
In any state, issues at polling places mean officials can extend hours to allow people to vote, and tight races mean Decision Desk HQ needs more votes to be able to project a winner.
To check your voter registration status or to get more information about how to vote and what’s on your ballot, visit vote.org.
Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the war that's driving up prices.
